One of the challenges faced as a hiring manager is how to decide if the candidate you just interviewed is really the best candidate you’re going to find.  Whatever you do, don’t pick the first few candidates you interview. Even if they seem awesome, don’t do it!
For those who love statistics and are unfamiliar with optimal stopping theory, I recommend reading what’s commonly called the “Secretary Problemâ€. The summary for those who dislike math is that if the number of candidates (N) that will apply for this role is known, you should interview and then immediately reject the first N/e candidates (where the mathematical constant e = 2.71828).  So statistically speaking if you expect to get 50 candidates, you should reject the first 18.394 outright, and then you should hire the next candidate you find that is better than anyone else you’re interviewed so far.  Even if candidate 1 or 2 seems great, the odds are that some candidate between interviews 19 and 50 will be even better.
“But how do I know how many people will apply” you may rightly ask?  As it turns out, if you don’t know N but you do have a defined time period (T) in which you must hire, there’s a similar “1/e-law of best choice” which applies.  In that case, you should interview and then reject all applicants which apply during the first T * (1/e) period.  So for instance if you must fill the role within 30 days (perhaps for the holiday shopping season), you shouldn’t make an offer to any candidate that applies during the first 11 days (since 30 * (1/2.71828) = 11.036). but starting on day 12 you should hire the next candidate that comes along who is better than any prior interviewee.
“But what if I don’t know the time period (T) or number of candidates (N)?” Â As it turns out, so long as you have a reasonable enough time period to find a sufficient minimum number of candidates, you can probably apply some estimates (perhaps T=90 or N=50) and divide by 3 to come up with a results that reasonably approximates the mathematical version (see Heuristic Performance of the Secretary Problem).
Of course like most managers I don’t completely trust statistics in the real world.  So while I don’t completely subscribe to the above (though it’s been shown statistically to select the best candidate 37% of the time), I do believe it provides two good rules of thumb that every hiring manager should use:
- Always interview several candidates before even considering one, and
- Always pass on a candidate that isn’t a slam dunk – don’t keep them “on the back burner” in case you can’t find someone better